CAM study on „Automotive Cyber Security“ in cooperation with Cisco 👉 The importance of cyber security is increasing with the digitization and networking of vehicles, electromobility and autonomous driving 👉More and more cyber attacks on vehicles and companies are constantly increasing the risk situation 👉Comprehensive cyber security strategies are necessary today, but are not being implemented everywhere
„Automotive cyber security must be tackled with a holistic approach as the industry’s top priority,“ says study director Stefan Bratzel: „It’s about building and strengthening a kind of immune system for the car ecosystem.“
„For automotive companies, the issue of cyber security is crucial to success,“ adds Christian Korff, Managing Director Global Accounts and member of the management board of Cisco Germany and commissioner of the study. „The automotive industry is a cornerstone of our German economy. We cannot afford to be vulnerable in the cyber area. Only those who provide secure vehicles and services at all levels will retain the trust of customers.“
Press release
With the increasing networking and digitization of cars, production and logistics, the risk of cyber attacks on the automotive industry is increasing. In a comprehensive analysis, the various attack vectors were systematically analyzed. In the case of connected vehicles alone, there are 12 different attack areas, in which there are potentially several entry points.
The list also shows that cyber attacks in the automotive industry are not limited to large, established manufacturers, but are increasingly affecting supplier companies, automobile dealers and other players along the value chain. An analysis of 52 significant security incidents between January and June 2022 shows that around two thirds (67%) mainly affected automotive suppliers. The complex supply chain is considered a major vulnerability and offers central attack points that are exploited with a high degree of probability and often with great damage.
„The cyber threat situation for the automotive industry has increased continuously in recent years. With the spread of software-defined vehicles, electromobility, autonomous driving and the connected supply chain, cyber risks are increasing further. A professional cyber security strategy by companies is becoming increasingly important as an essential hygiene factor in the automotive industry,“ explains study director Prof. Dr. Stefan Bratzel from the Center of Automotive Management (CAM). „However, companies differ considerably in terms of the quality of conception and implementation. A high level of cyber security performance increases resilience to the increasing number of cyber attacks and enables rapid detection and appropriate response to corresponding incidents.“
Connected cars & services lead to more attack vectors
Customer requests for connected cars and connected services create enormous competitive pressure, which sometimes pushes security aspects into the background. In addition, the implementation of automotive cyber security is very complex: it covers the entire product life cycle of the vehicle, from development to production and vehicle use. Security must be ensured in a complex value chain with distributed responsibility in the large supplier and partner network.
This is also required by new regulatory requirements for cyber security in motor vehicles such as UN R155 (15) and EU Regulation 2018/858. From July 2022, they have been mandatory for manufacturers in the EU to implement them for all new vehicle types and from July 2024 also for all existing vehicle types.
„For automotive companies, the issue of cyber security will be crucial to success,“ adds Christian Korff, Managing Director Global Accounts and member of the management board of Cisco Germany and commissioner of the study. „The automotive industry is a cornerstone of our German economy. We cannot afford to be vulnerable in the cyber area. Only those who provide secure vehicles and services at all levels will retain the trust of customers.“
Cyber attacks are increasing
A meta-analysis of cyber attacks on vehicles and companies in the automotive industry carried out as part of the study reveals the sharply increasing risks. The evaluations of the previous points of attack on the cyber security of the international automotive industry show that the quantity and quality of attacks has increased considerably in recent years. They affect the entire automotive industry, as recent examples from 2022 and 2023 show:
After a supplier of plastic parts and electronic components was hit by a suspected cyber attack, Toyota had to temporarily suspend operations at its Japanese factories in February 2022 and was unable to build around 13,000 cars as planned.
US manufacturer General Motors announced that it was the victim of a cyber attack in April 2022 in which some customer data was exposed and hackers were able to redeem reward points for gift cards.
Supplier Continental was also targeted by cyber criminals. An investigation into the incident in summer 2022 revealed that the attackers were able to steal some data from affected IT systems despite established security precautions.
In March 2023, a cyber attack on Tesla was reported in which hackers were able to remotely dial into a vehicle and perform various functions. These included honking the horn, opening the trunk, turning on the low beam and manipulating the infotainment system.
Software vulnerabilities in the multimodal mobility app Moovit meant that in August 2023, security researchers were able to intercept numerous registration data from various user accounts and exploit them for free rides.
„The increasing networking also means that the automotive industry offers many opportunities for professional cyber attackers to attack – whether in the car itself, in production or in the complex logistics chains,“ explains Holger Unterbrink, Technical Leader at Cisco Talos – one of the largest commercial threat research units in the world. „Attackers today act extremely professionally. They look for poorly secured access in complex IT environments at companies with a high reputation and high cash reserves. The automotive industry is a worthwhile target. I expect cyber attacks to continue to increase in the coming years.“
In a „deep dive“ into electromobility, the study found that the charging infrastructure for electric vehicles is one of the areas at particular risk. The charging ecosystem is extremely complex due to its various market participants and basically offers many points of attack for cyber criminals. Overall, the analysis of cyber attacks shows that awareness of the dangers and risks in the industry is still significantly underdeveloped.
Big differences in status
Achieving a high level of cyber security performance in automotive companies therefore requires great effort and must be continuously monitored. The companies located at different value creation levels and stages in the industry differ considerably in terms of the quality of the design and implementation of cyber security programs. They are still at a low level, especially for many suppliers and service providers. However, as the supply chain becomes increasingly networked and automated, the attack surface increases. Malware can spread from a supplier’s internal systems to service provider networks and even the corporate networks of automobile manufacturers.
The study proposes a model for the empirical evaluation of the cyber security performance of automotive companies. The 4C model combines relevant performance criteria of cyber security in four dimensions: competencies, cooperations, culture & organization, and cyber strategy. According to the study authors, meeting the associated criteria is an important prerequisite for high performance quality of cyber security and thus the long-term success of companies.
“To a man with a hammer, all problems look like nails.” (Japanese proverb)
There is still a widespread view in politics and society that urban transport problems are the result of insufficient transport availability, and that the primary solution lies in ex-panding capacity, particularly in expanding roads and motorways or, if necessary, in expanding local rail transport. The study clears up this fundamental misunderstanding and shows what long-term consequences such supply-oriented transport policy strate-gies have. Los Angeles is a prime example of how the expansion of streets and highways induces new traffic and increasing traffic volumes in the short term, which do not solve traffic problems but exacerbate them in the medium and long term. This is how dis-tance-intensive mobility structures and lifestyles emerge and solidify, which in turn produce a traffic behavior pattern that focuses on the car with almost no alternative. In such structures, the availability and use of one’s own car are individually rational and hardly socially reversible. Then, even billion-dollar-investments in public transport will literally have no effect to solve transport problems.
As a prime example, the book examines the history of Los Angeles’ development and identi-fies the key drivers that have shaped the metropolis’ extreme transport policies. With other cities facing similar — albeit less extreme — transportation issues, they can learn from how Los Angeles had responded and continues to adapt to its considerable transport policy prob-lems, especially in order to avoid the mobility experiences faced by the American city.
Learning from the extreme case of transportation policy in Los Angeles The development of transportation policy in Los Angeles is a story of extremes: The me-tropolis in Southern California today stands for mobility focused on cars and has one of the highest motorization rates in the world. What is little known, however, is that in the 1920s the city had the largest regional rail network in the world, which was completely abolished in the early 1960s. Instead, an extensive network of streets and highways was built in the metropolis, which has made Los Angeles a symbol of car-oriented mobility with all its nega-tive ecological and social side effects. Despite the construction and constant expansion of the huge freeway system, Los Angeles is one of the cities with the greatest traffic problems. In a further twist in transport policy, the reconstruction of a large local rail transport system was initiated in the early 1990s – with only limited success, as the analysis shows. A further chap-ter in transport policy is currently being introduced with electromobility and autonomous driving.
The study traces the history of the development of transportation policy in Los Angeles up to the present day. The extreme case offers the opportunity to see the causes and interactions of mobility and transport policy more clearly, precisely because it was often not fundamen-tally different compared to other metropolises, but just more extreme. Other cities can learn from the patterns in which Los Angeles has responded and is responding to its trans-portation policy problems, particularly to avoid Los Angeles‘ mobility experiences.
Which questions are addressed in the book using Los Angeles as an example?
How does car-centric mobility develop in a metropolis and what role does transport policy play in this?
To what extent does the development of a large local rail transport network contribute to a car-friendly mobility structure in a region?
How is it that the largest local rail transport network in the world is being completely abol-ished again? Which actors and interest groups are behind it?
Why does the expansion of highways lead to more traffic problems? What are the interac-tions of the transport infrastructure on transport demand and mobility structures?
What self-reinforcing effects does a supply-oriented transport policy produce? How does infrastructure development promote urban sprawl thereby creating greater demand for transport?
What are the effects of a car-loving mobility culture on traffic and the environment? Why is it difficult to change a car-loving lifestyle?
Why does a billion-dollar reconstruction of public rail transport fail in a car-centric me-tropolis?
How promising is autonomous driving in distance-intensive mobility structures?
What are important findings from the analysis? The model of a supply- and infrastructure-oriented transport policy creates a self-reinforcing system of constantly increasing transport demand and increasing traffic problems. Los Ange-les is a prime example for that. Once such a distance-intensive and car-related mobility structure has become apparent, programs to promote public transport will also fall flat. The multi-billion-dollar investments in a local public transport system in Los Angeles since the 1990s have had little success: the density of cars is increasing and traffic behavior has not changed significantly in favor of public transport. Due to the sharp decline in passenger numbers in the last 10 years, a “transit blues” is also noticeable among politicians and advo-cates of local rail transport. The reasons for this lie primarily in the established car-related mobility structures, which do not make the use of public transport attractive. The main users of public transport are predominantly socially disadvantaged, low-income groups. The im-proved economic situation in the 2010s meant that many low-income earners were able to afford a car and from then on turned away from public transport for their mobility needs.
Los Angeles shows that the supply-oriented expansion of expressways and motorways in a region does not reduce traffic congestion, but rather creates more traffic: by spatially shift-ing car traffic from other routes, by shifting the time of car trips, by shifting trips from other means of transport on the car, through new journeys that were not undertaken before and – in the long term – through the spatial drifting apart of places of residence, work and leisure. Due to this ecologically questionable control cycle, the newly created road traffic capacity is quickly overcompensated by higher traffic volumes, which leads to further, usually even larger, traffic jams.
Los Angeles is an extreme case, but not an isolated case when comparing the transportation policies of cities around the world. In Germany, too, the spatial separation of living and working is progressing, which means that the number of commuters and commuter routes is constantly increasing. In 2022, a new high of 20.3 million commuters was reached in Ger-many. In 2011 there were still 16.5 million people crossing municipal borders on the way to work. The number of commuters is increasing at an above-average rate compared to the number of employees with social insurance. The average commuting distance increased from 16.5 to 17.2 km during this period. The situation is particularly explosive in large cities such as Munich, Hamburg and Frankfurt, whose labor markets are extremely attractive. Many people are moving their place of residence to the surrounding area, where rents are significantly lower. Munich is the commuter stronghold with more than half a million com-muters who travel an average distance of 38.6 km (Bavarian State Office for Statistics 2023). In the “Inrix Traffic Score”, Munich will be the most congested metropolis in Germany in 2022 with a time loss of 74 hours (global rank 38). In Los Angeles, the average time lost is 95 hours (ranking 14th globally). (https://inrix.com/scorecard/#form-download-the-full-report).
Overall, the extreme case of Los Angeles shows that a sustainable solution to the problems of the metropolitan regions will only be possible if the origins of transport with its spatial, social and economic interdependencies are understood and integrated into (transport) policy action. Political programs and instruments, such as the expansion of motorway infrastruc-ture or commuter allowances, which promote distances between living and working as well as other places of activity, have negative ecological and social consequences that are diffi-cult to reverse. Key Features
• Derives lessons and best practices on transport policy and regional planning/development from the Los Angeles case that can be adopted for other cities • Offers fresh perspectives on transport policy, urban planning, the politics of mobility, and the development conditions of traffic with economic, ecological and socio-cultural implica-tions
About World Scientific Publishing Co. World Scientific Publishing is a leading international independent publisher of books and journals for the scholarly, research and professional communities. World Scientific collabo-rates with prestigious organisations like the Nobel Foundation and US National Academies Press to bring high quality academic and professional content to researchers and academics worldwide. The company publishes about 600 books and over 170 journals in various fields annually. To find out more about World Scientific, please visit www.worldscientific.com.
For more information, contact WSPC Communications at communications@wspc.com.
Germany is likely to „significantly miss“ the federal government’s target of 15 million electric vehicles by 2030 unless it moves quickly to stimulate sales, according to the director of the Center of Automotive Management (CAM).
Zwischen Januar und Juni 2023 wurden in den automobilen Kernregionen mehr als 4 Mio. BEVs neu zugelassen (+36%). China bleibt mit 2,6 Mio. Neuzulassungen Leitmarkt vor Europa (940 Tsd.) und den USA (580 Tsd.)
Unter den OEMs erzielt Tesla mit 889 Tsd. die meisten BEV-Verkäufe. BYD steigert seinen Absatz um 90% auf 617 Tsd. und setzt den Marktführer unter Druck. VW liegt mit 321 Tsd. auf Rang 3 und kann sich gegen andere OEMs durchsetzen.
Im Gesamtjahr 2023 rechnet das CAM global mit knapp 10 Mio. BEV-Neuzulassungen, davon etwa 6 Mio. in China, 2 Mio. in Europa und 1,2 Mio. in den USA.
Der globale Hochlauf der Elektromobilität nimmt trotz konjunktureller Herausforderungen weiter Fahrt auf. In den ersten sechs Monaten des Jahres 2023 wurden in den automobilen Kernregionen China, Europa (EU-EFTA-UK) und USA insgesamt mehr als 4 Mio. vollelektrische Fahrzeuge (BEV) neu zugelassen (+36%). Tesla bleibt mit etwa 889.000 Auslieferungen (+57%) weiterhin global an der Spitze, BYD legt allerdings mit rund 617.000 Verkäufen (+90%) kräftig zu. Die VW Group steigert ihren Absatz deutlich auf 321.000 Einheiten (+49%), während die Konzerne SAIC (-7%), Hyundai (inkl. Kia) (+24%) und Stellantis (+24%) entweder leichte Rückgänge verzeichnen oder nur unterdurchschnittlich wachsen. Die deutschen Premiumhersteller BMW (+101%) und Mercedes-Benz (+85%) verdoppeln in etwa ihre vollelektrischen Auslieferungen im Vergleich zur Vorjahresperiode. Für das Gesamtjahr 2023 rechnet das Center of Automotive Management (CAM) mit knapp 10 Mio. BEVs, davon etwa 6 Mio. in China, 2 Mio. in Europa und etwa 1,2 Mio. in den USA.
China bleibt mit weitem Abstand globaler Leitmarkt der E-Mobilität. Zwischen Januar und Juni 2023 wurden rund 2,6 Mio. BEVs neu zugelassen, was einer Steigerung von 31% entspricht (vgl. Abbildung 1). Mit einem BEV-Anteil von etwa 23 % in den ersten sechs Monaten ist damit fast jedes vierte neu zugelassene Auto in China vollelektrisch. Auch in Europa steigen die BEV-Verkäufe weiterhin dynamisch. Im Vergleich zum Vorjahreszeitraum erhöht sich der Absatz von E-Fahrzeugen um mehr als 45% auf nunmehr 939.000 Einheiten. Davon entfällt mehr als die Hälfte aller BEV-Neuzulassungen auf die Länder Deutschland (220.000), Großbritannien (153.000) und Frankreich (138.000). In den USA zeichnet sich insgesamt der stärkste Zuwachs ab. In den ersten sechs Monaten legten vollelektrische Fahrzeuge um mehr als 47% zu und erreichten ein Niveau von rund 560.000 Einheiten. Mit etwa 60% Marktanteil wird das US-Wachstum noch immer maßgeblich vom heimischen Elektropionier Tesla getrieben. Sowohl die anderen US-amerikanischen Hersteller GM und Ford als auch asiatische und deutsche OEMs spielen hingegen nach wie vor keine nennenswerte Rolle.
Abbildung 1: BEV-Neuzulassungen und -Marktanteile in den Kernregionen (Jan-Jun 2022/23)
Die Entwicklungsdynamik der absatzstärksten Automobilherstellern der Elektromobilität (BEV) zeigt im ersten Halbjahr 2023 ein zweigeteiltes Bild (vgl. Abbildung 2). Während wenige Top-Performer trotz konjunktureller Herausforderungen hohe BEV-Wachstumsraten erzielen, ist bei einigen OEMs die BEV-Absatzdynamik gering. Im globalen Ranking liegt Tesla mit 889.000 Elektrofahrzeugen und einem Zuwachs von 57% im Vergleich zum Vorjahreszeitrum auf Platz 1. Auf Rang 2 steigert BYD die BEV-Auslieferungen sogar um 90% auf jetzt 617.000 Einheiten und kommt dem Branchenprimus Tesla immer näher. Bei BYD machen BEVs und PHEVs jeweils rund 50 Prozent der Gesamtabsätze aus.
Abbildung 2: TOP 10 Automobilhersteller nach BEV-Neuzulassungen (Jan-Jun 2022/23)
Mit deutlichem Abstand zu den Marktführern der Elektromobilität rückt die VW Group auf Rang 3 vor (+1) und steigert seine Verkäufe im ersten Halbjahr auf 321.000 BEVs (+49%). Volkswagen profitiert vor allem von der Abarbeitung bisheriger BEV-Bestellungen. Gemessen am ebenfalls angestiegenen Konzernabsatz haben Elektrofahrzeuge mit einem Anteil von 7,6% weiterhin noch eine relativ geringe Bedeutung. Auf Rang 4 kommt der chinesische SAIC-Konzern. SAIC profitierte bislang stark von den Auslieferungen des elektrischen Kleinstfahrzeugs Hongguang Mini EV, die jedoch abnehmen. CAM geht von einem Rückgang der BEV-Zulassungen auf schätzungsweise 300.000 Einheiten (-7%) aus, wobei der BEV-Verkaufsanteil von SAIC mit 27% noch immer auf hohem Niveau liegt.
Hyundai kommt mit 230.000 BEV-Absätzen auf Rang 5, knapp vor der chinesischen Herstellergruppe Geely (inkl. Volvo) und GAC. Die Top-10 komplettieren Stellantis, BMW und Mercedes-Benz Group.
Hyundai und Stellantis konnten ihre BEV-Verkäufe um jeweils 24% steigern, wobei der Anteil an den Gesamtverkäufen mit 6% (Hyundai) bzw. 5% (Stellantis) weiterhin überschaubar bleibt. Dagegen zeichnet sich bei der Geely Gruppe (+78%) und GAC (+111%) eine deutlich dynamischere Entwicklung ab. Beide Unternehmen steigern nicht nur ihre Auslieferungen weit überdurchschnittlich, sondern weisen auch hohe BEV-Verkaufsanteile von 21% (Geely) bzw. 53% (GAC) auf.
Eine ähnlich gute Performance zeigen die beiden deutschen Premiumherstellern BMW und Mercedes-Benz. Mit 153.000 (BMW) bzw. 122.000 (Mercedes) Einheiten können beide Unternehmen ihre BEV-Auslieferungen in der ersten Jahreshälfte nahezu verdoppeln, allerdings liegt BMW mit einem BEV-Anteil von 13% leicht vor Mercedes mit 11% (nur Pkw) bzw. 10% (inkl. MB Vans).
Die Absatztrends korrelieren dabei sehr stark mit der Innovationsstärke der Elektromobilität. Tesla bleibt der weltweit innovationsstärkste Automobilhersteller im Bereich der batterieelektrischen Mobilität (BEV) mit 182 Indexpunkten (+0 IP). Tesla hat jedoch wenig fahrzeugtechnische Neuerungen hervorgebracht, sondern vor allem die Kostensituation entlang der gesamten elektromobilen Wertschöpfungskette verbessert. Der VW-Konzern kann auf Rang 2 den Abstand zu Tesla etwas verkürzen und kommt auf 167 Indexpunkte (+23 IP). Die chinesischen Konzerne Geely (+43 IP) und BYD (+23 IP) erhöhen ihre Innovationsstärke auf jeweils 104 IP und liegen praktisch gleichauf auf Rang 3 vor Hyundai mit 95 IP (+18 IP) auf Rang 5 und Mercedes-Benz mit 81 IP (+38 IP) auf Rang 6. Geely, Mercedes Benz und BYD verzeichnen die stärkste Zunahme im aktuellen Ranking der innovativsten Elektrofahrzeugbauer.
Hierzu Studienleiter Stefan Bratzel: „Die Elektromobilität wird im globalen Vergleich vor allem durch Tesla und BYD getrieben, auf die allein bereits 37% der BEV-Absätze in den Kernregionen entfallen. Der durch Tesla ausgelöste Preiskampf setzt den Wettbewerbern enorm zu, die zunehmend zu Preisanpassungen gezwungen sind. Damit steigt der Kosten- und Konsolidierungsdruck, da die Margen der Elektromobilität bei vielen etablierten Volumenherstellern gering oder negativ sind. Für den weiteren Markthochlauf der Elektromobilität muss das Modellangebot von preisgünstigen Fahrzeugen deutlich erhöht werden.“
Bei den Prognosen für das Gesamtjahr 2023 geht das CAM von etwa 10 Mio. BEV-Neuzulassungen (+35%) weltweit aus. Der chinesische Markt wird dabei weiterhin mit rund 6 Mio. Einheiten eine führende Rolle bei der Antriebswende einnehmen (+20%). In Europa dürften sich rückläufige Förderungen sowie konjunkturelle Herausforderungen dämpfend auf die Neuzulassungen auswirken. CAM geht hierbei von etwa 2 Mio. BEVs aus (+27%), wobei für Deutschland rund 430.000 Elektrofahrzeuge prognostiziert werden. Die USA befinden sich im Vergleich der Kernregionen noch in der frühsten Wachstumsphase. Ausgiebige Förderkulissen sowie die aggressive Preispolitik seitens des Marktführers Tesla könnten die BEV-Neuzulassungen auf etwa 1,2 Mio. Fahrzeuge anheben (+50%).
Über den Electromobility Report:
Der CAM Electromobility Report 2023 analysiert regelmäßig die aktuellen Markt-, Absatz- und Innovationstrends der Elektromobilität in wichtigen Kernmärkten (z.B. China, USA, Europa und Deutschland). Gleichzeitig werden die wesentlichen Einflussfaktoren auf den Markthochlauf der Elektromobilität empirisch beleuchtet. Die daraus abgeleiteten Annahmen werden schließlich in Markthochlauf-Szenarien für das Jahr 2030 überführt. Die Untersuchung konzentriert sich auf reine Batteriefahrzeuge (BEV) und Plug-In-Hybride (PHEV).
