- Between 2011 and 2020, a record 331 million vehicles were recalled in the reference market of the USA due to safety-related defects. This corresponds to a recall rate of 201 percent, i.e. more than twice as many vehicles were recalled than new vehicles were sold in the same period.
- The analyses of the recalls for 2020 and the first half of 2021 do not show a reversal of the trend, but rather an intensification of the negative trend. The number of vehicles recalled by global manufacturers amounts to 30.3 million in 2020 and already 18.6 million passenger cars in the first half of 2021. The recall rates of 208 percent (2020) and 227 percent (2021) are thus once again above the 10-year average.
- In 2020, Toyota, Honda and the U.S. manufacturer Ford had to recall the most vehicles due to safety defects. In addition to Volvo, the highest recall rates were recorded in particular by the Japanese groups Honda, Mitsubishi and Toyota. In the first half of 2021, the premium manufacturer Daimler and the US groups General Motors and Ford will be particularly affected.
Recall trends of automotive manufacturers in comparison 2020 - HY1 2021
The number of recalls by automotive manufacturers remains at a very high level. According to current calculations, 30.3 million passenger cars were recalled for safety defects in the reference market of the USA in 2020 as a whole. In the first half of 2021, the figure was already over 18.6 million cars (including LCVs). This means that the recall rate, which expresses the number of recalled vehicles as a proportion of new registrations for the year, is again at an above-average level of 208 percent in 2020 (2019: 219%) and 227 percent in the first half of 2021. These are the key findings of the study "Recall Trends of Global Automakers 2011-2021" by the Center of Automotive Management (CAM) in Bergisch Gladbach, which takes stock of OEM recalls on an annual basis.
With recall rates in excess of 400 percent, Volvo, Honda and Mitsubishi are the worst-performing manufacturers in 2020. With a rate of 328 percent and around 7 million vehicles affected, Toyota will recall the most passenger cars to workshops due to safety-related defects, followed by Honda with 5.8 million passenger cars and Ford with around 5 million vehicles. Tesla (13%), Mazda (26%), GM (53%) and Jaguar Land Rover (75%) have the lowest recall rates in 2020. The German automakers BMW, Volkswagen and Daimler are more in the middle of the pack with 126, 121 and 86 percent respectively.
Occupant protection accounted for around 27 percent of all safety-related product defects in 2020, while powertrain (engine, transmission) quality defects accounted for around 21 percent of recalls. Safety defects attributable to the body accounted for around 20 percent of recalled vehicles, followed by electrical and electronics problems (14%) and brake system defects (10%). The first-ever evaluation of recalls due to software defects shows that around 7 percent of passenger cars had to be recalled for this reason in 2020, corresponding to a volume of just under 2 million vehicles. Most of the software problems, with a share of 89 percent, are attributable to Honda, followed by Volvo with 6 percent and Fiat-Chrysler with just under 2 percent.
Figure 1: Distribution of safety-related defects among assemblies in the 2020 U.S. market.
In the first half of 2021, the number of recalls in the US market will already be 18.6 million, which corresponds to a recall rate of 227 percent. The American groups have a high recall volume: market leader GM recalls around 7 million cars, while Ford recalls 3.7 million cars. Their recall rates are very high at 525 and 374 percent respectively. Daimler fares even worse, having to recall around 2 million passenger cars in the first half of 2021 on U.S. sales of around 160,000, which corresponds to a recall rate of 1,275 percent. Occupant protection accounted for more than half of all safety-related product defects in H1 2021, while electrical/electronics accounted for 17.5 percent and powertrain just under 10 percent. The other areas such as chassis (8%), brake system (6%), body (4%), steering system (2%) and other assemblies (1%) tend to play a minor role. With an absolute recall volume of just under 2.7 million vehicles, or a share of around 15 percent, software defects already exceed the full-year figure for 2020 at the end of the first half of 2021. Daimler had to recall the most vehicles due to software defects, with a share of around 64 percent, followed by Subaru (17%), General Motors (11%) and Tesla (5%).
In the first half of 2021, the number of recalls in the US market will already be 18.6 million, which corresponds to a recall rate of 227 percent. The American groups have a high recall volume: market leader GM recalls around 7 million cars, while Ford recalls 3.7 million cars. Their recall rates are very high at 525 and 374 percent respectively. Daimler fares even worse, having to recall around 2 million passenger cars in the first half of 2021 on U.S. sales of around 160,000, which corresponds to a recall rate of 1,275 percent. Occupant protection accounted for more than half of all safety-related product defects in H1 2021, while electrical/electronics accounted for 17.5 percent and powertrain just under 10 percent. The other areas such as chassis (8%), brake system (6%), body (4%), steering system (2%) and other assemblies (1%) tend to play a minor role. With an absolute recall volume of just under 2.7 million vehicles, or a share of around 15 percent, software defects already exceed the full-year figure for 2020 at the end of the first half of 2021. Daimler had to recall the most vehicles due to software defects, with a share of around 64 percent, followed by Subaru (17%), General Motors (11%) and Tesla (5%).
Very different safety-relevant components may be responsible for the high overall recall volumes and rates in individual cases:
- Toyota had to recall a total of nearly 2.9 million vehicles in the Avalon, Corolla and Matrix model lines in 2020 because the airbag's electronic control unit malfunctioned.
- Around 2.1 million passenger cars of various model series (including Transit, Mustang, Fiesta) were recalled by US manufacturer Ford because a repair already carried out on the door locking system may not have been carried out properly. In addition, Ford has already recalled 2.6 million Ranger, Fusion and Explorer passenger cars in 2021 because the front airbags on the driver's side could deploy uncontrollably if exposed to high humidity or high temperatures for a long time.
- The largest volume of recalls in the first half of 2021 was recorded by the US company General Motors. By June, a total of around 4.4 million vehicles (including the Cadillac Escalade) had been called into workshops because of the risk that the airbags could deploy in an uncontrolled manner. At the end of August 2021, General Motors additionally announced that all Chevrolet Bolt EV passenger cars produced had recently been recalled due to a risk of battery fires. The manufacturer put the cost of retrofitting the approximately 140,000 affected vehicles at around one billion US dollars.
Figure 2: Safety-related recalls of passenger cars/LCVs in the U.S. market 2011 - 2021 (H1) (in millions).
To this end, study director Stefan Bratzel:
"The high recall figures of recent years are also a sign of the enormous pressure for change that is weighing on the industry. Overall, it is already foreseeable that problems around the battery system as well as software problems will increase significantly. However, safety-related recalls are only the tip of the iceberg. It is not uncommon for the product manufacturing process of some automotive companies to resemble "banana development": the product does not mature until it reaches the customer. This often annoys car buyers and can lead to personal injury and property damage. It also costs manufacturers a lot of money in the medium and long term and damages their image."
Long-term comparison of recalls
Over the past 10 years (2011-2020), an all-time negative record of more than 331 million(!) vehicles recalled has been achieved in the U.S. reference market alone, representing an average recall rate of 201 percent. Including H1 2021, 349.7 million passenger vehicles have been recalled since 2011 (204% recall rate). This means that more than twice as many vehicles have been recalled to workshops than new cars were sold in the same period (see Figure 2). Accordingly, a large proportion of the models recalled relate to model years further back in time.
By manufacturer, General Motors, Honda, Fiat-Chrysler as well as Ford and Toyota are particularly affected, having to recall between 60 and 46 million passenger cars due to safety defects within a decade (see Figure 3). At 342 percent, Honda also achieved the negative peak in the recall rate, ahead of Mitsubishi (331%), Fiat-Chrysler (273%) and Mazda (266%). General Motors, Toyota and Ford are in the middle of the pack with recall rates of 202, 191 and 185 percent, respectively. The premium manufacturer BMW is affected more than average in the long-term comparison, with a recall rate of 219 percent, while Daimler and the Volkswagen Group are slightly below the average of the manufacturers considered, with 201 and 173 percent respectively. In a long-term comparison, Jaguar-Land Rover and Tesla have the lowest safety-related recall rates in the industry, at 86 and 55 percent respectively, followed by Volvo (136%), Nissan (138%) and Hyundai (152%).
Figure 3: Recall volume and recall rates of passenger car manufacturers 2011-2021 (H1) in the US market.
Reasons for quality problems and conclusions
Recalls in 2020 and 2021 (H1) again show that product quality remains a key issue in the automotive industry. Growing recall risks and increasing global sensitivity to quality defects call for a paradigm shift in quality management at automotive manufacturers. The risk of major recalls has increased significantly due to cross-brand and cross-model platform and common part strategies as well as global production networks. At the same time, safety-relevant defects in vehicles are less and less accepted in the important automotive markets, especially because customers are very well informed via cross-national Internet blogs and newsgroups. Safety-relevant defects can lead to deaths and injuries to drivers and also cause image losses and high costs for manufacturers.
In many cases, the quality management systems of many automotive manufacturers do not yet take account of the new global product safety requirements. In order to maximize profits in the short term, some manufacturers and suppliers tend to operate reactive quality management systems with after-the-fact elimination of defects, sometimes even accepting that accidents will occur, as in the case of airbag defects. Against the backdrop of changing development and production conditions and new technologies and functions in the vehicle, however, proactive and preventive product quality strategies are necessary, which must focus on comprehensive and long-term cost/benefit considerations.
Stefan Bratzel on this topic:
"Against the backdrop of new technical requirements and growing public awareness, manufacturers' quality management must become much more relevant in automotive companies. For example, new customer benefits will arise in the future as a result of electromobility, networking and (partially) autonomous driving functions. But this will also significantly increase the risks. Overall, the cyber security of vehicles will become a major security and quality issue for the industry, which will play a key role in determining the acceptance of new growth areas in the automotive industry. Over-the-air updates of vehicle functions can provide a remedy, as many problems can be remedied by software optimizations without the vehicle having to physically go to the workshop. At present, however, only a few automakers have mastered this."
To the study: Global automakers' recall trends in 2020 and 2021 (H1) (AutomotivePERFORMANCE Report 2021).
The Center of Automotive Management (CAM) has been analyzing the recalls of global automotive manufacturers on an annual basis since 2005. The USA is chosen as the reference market. The U.S. market is a meaningful indicator of the product quality of automotive companies due to its sales volume, relatively strict safety guidelines and, above all, the high risk of lawsuits. A recall is registered by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) in the U.S. when a safety-relevant defect occurs in a vehicle or the vehicle or its parts do not meet safety standards. Recalls are often triggered by complaints and information about vehicle defects, e.g. from motorists, which are reported to NHTSA. If a manufacturer fails to comply with its duty to report or delays a recall, it faces stiff penalties as well as lawsuits worth millions of dollars. The recall trends indicate that product quality - especially with regard to safety-relevant features in the vehicle - remains a critical issue for the industry, which can not only lead to an enormous direct cost burden, but also place an enormous strain on the image of vehicle manufacturers.
Structural causes of growing quality problems.
1. increasing technical complexity of the vehicle
The technical complexity of vehicles has increased enormously over the last 20 years, which has made vehicles fundamentally safer. However, the technical complexity has also led to an increase in the frequency of faults and susceptibility to faults. Contributing factors include passive and active safety systems (such as ABS, ESP, airbags; driving assistance systems), which have at the same time significantly increased vehicle safety. Other factors include engine optimization (start/stop systems, turbocharging, etc.) and numerous convenience features such as in-vehicle navigation and Internet services. It is to be expected that the degree of complexity of vehicles will continue to increase significantly in the future as further comfort and safety features as well as networking and software functions are developed.
2. increase in the speed of development due to increased intensity of competition
Product development cycles have been significantly shortened over the past 15 years. Due to the highly competitive nature of the industry, global manufacturers are bringing new models and derivatives onto the market in ever shorter periods of time, thus continuously broadening their product portfolio. Those who manage to be on the market quickly with new models or variants have advantages in global competition. The high time pressure in product development has a negative impact on quality assurance.
3. relocation of value creation and globalization of development and production
In order to realize cost, time and innovation advantages, significant parts of the value chain have been transferred to automotive suppliers. Their share of the value chain has now risen to around 75 percent. At the same time, this shift is increasing the demands on cross-company quality management, which must also be ensured at a global level. On the one hand, it is necessary to ensure not only the company's own product quality, but also the quality of parts from global suppliers through suitable processes. On the other hand, the complexity of quality management is also increased by the fact that automotive manufacturers not only have to assess the quality of the parts they supply, but usually also the quality of their suppliers' internationally distributed production facilities, and safeguard this quality through processes.
4. increased cost pressure as a threat to product quality
Automotive manufacturers are also under enormous cost pressure due to the high intensity of innovation and competition. At the same time, the manufacturers are passing on the cost pressure to the automotive suppliers, who are required to reduce their own costs and those of their parts and raw material suppliers. There is a risk here that the cost pressure will be to the detriment of parts and product quality.
5. modular and common parts strategy
In order to save costs and increase development speed, manufacturers must increasingly rely on common parts or modular strategies. Here, OEMs use the same components and modules in as many models as possible in order to benefit from the associated volume effects. As a result, a defect discovered late in a modular system can lead to millions of vehicle recalls.
English 
German